picks and comments (pt. 1) 
Judging by the flood of emails in my inbox proclaiming success for various artists based on Dove Award nominations, it's clear that the nomination process has made it down to the final cuts. As is tradition here at theTRu, I'll spend the next few minutes (hours) discussing the nominees and making my predictions.
This year, however, i'm switching some things up. You can still expect to see my "druthers" and "most likely" picks as well as the comments that explain my rationalization, but this year, since the feature always ends up taking much longer than anticipated, i'm breaking it up.
This part will include the seven "major" categories and future installments - not too far in the future - will cover the album categories, the song categories and the bonus categories. And now, we shall begin.
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.:Song of the Year:.
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Amazing Grace (My Chains Are Gone)
Cinderella
Empty Me
Give Me Your Eyes
I Will Not Be Moved
I'm Letting Go
Mighty to Save
Never Going Back to OK
Reason Enough
You Reign
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.:druthers:.
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.:likely:.
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Give Me Your Eyes
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Cinderella
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Well, last year i picked Amazing Grace to win this category because it seemed to be not only the song on everyone's lips, but also the catch phrase that defined a mini-movement within the industry. It lost to Casting Crowns and their song, East to West. I'm not sure what that has to say about this year, but i suspect that Tomlin won't win Song of the Year again, but he is a strong darkhorse.
I struggled to chose between Give Me Your Eyes and Never Going Back to OK because i'm really digging both of them and their respective albums, but Brandon Heath won me over in the end. However, i suspect that the votes will be more emotionally charged and there's no more powerful story in the industry than that of the Chapman family. The song brought tears to many eyes before last year - even moreso now.
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.: Artist of the Year:.
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Casting Crowns
Steven Curtis Chapman
Fireflight
Marvin Sapp
Third Day
TobyMac
Chris Tomlin
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.:druthers:.
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.:likely:.
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TobyMac
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Steven Curtis Chapman
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It would be pretty nice to see a little back to back TobyMac action as Artist of the Year, but i think that this year kind of belongs to Steven Curtis Chapman.
Interestingly enough, they've changed the scoring of this category up, allowing for fans to vote and account for a third of the final tally. That works in Toby's favor, but really what it means is that a sixth of the vote will go to Skillet and another twelfth of the vote will go to Jeremy Camp even though neither of them are officially nominated.
As always, Chris Tomlin is a solid darkhorse and there were plenty of artists overlooked for the likes of Casting Crowns, Fireflight, and Marvin Sapp.
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.:New Artist of the Year:.
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Addison Road
Francesca Battistelli
Fee
Jonathan Nelson
Remedy Drive
Chris Sligh
Tenth Avenue North
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.:druthers:.
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.:likely:.
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Tenth Avenue North
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Fee
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This is another tough category to predict and i was torn between Francesca Battistelli and Tenth Avenue North, but i went with Tenth Ave because, well, just because.
Chris Sligh is doing pretty well for himself with this nod and one in Song of the Year, but i'm thinking that he's not going walk away with any of the statues. Addison Road really isn't new, but neither are the Jonas Brothers and they were nominated for the Grammy.
Fee gets the nod as far as i'm concerned because they made a big splash last year and they've got a lot of industry cred. Anyway, the fans will account for a third of the voting in this category as well and i'm not sure how that will be divvied out, so everything is kind of up in the air.
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.:Male Vocalist of the Year:.
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Jeremy Camp
Jon Foreman
Ernie Haase
Brandon Heath
David Phelps
Marvin Sapp
Chris Tomlin
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.:druthers:.
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.:likely:.
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Brandon Heath
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Chris Tomlin
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The term "vocalist" always throws off my picks here. I would be all for Jon Foreman as male artist of the year since he's been so busy with his EPs and touring with Switchfoot and all his other work, but when you throw in the term "vocalist" you expect something different than you hear from Foreman. I don't know, maybe just more refined or something.
Anyway, I suppose that these ideals have fallen by the wayside consistently enough that it shouldn't affect my predictions, but i'm stubborn. I'm pulling for Brandon Heath mainly because his vocals are so sincere, but i'm sure that Chris Tomlin has a better chance of winning. Jeremy Camp is certainly in the running as well, but if we're honest, Marvin Sapp and David Phelps are both purer vocalists.
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.:Female Vocalist of the Year:.
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Francesca Battistelli
Brooke Fraser
Karen Peck Gooch
Natalie Grant
Mandisa
Sandi Patty
Laura Story
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.:druthers:.
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.:likely:.
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Francesca Battistelli
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Natalie Grant
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This category is even more difficult for me to decide since the number of impressive female fronted albums from the past year is pretty thin. That, and Cindy Morgan isn't on the list. And it's odd to me that frontmen like Mac Powell get nominated regularly, but "front-women" such as Flyleaf's Lacey Mosley or Paramore's Hayley Williams rarely, if ever, find similar love from the GMA.
Also missing from the list is Krystal Meyers, who actually has an album to her name from last year, and a number of gospel artists with pipes that go on for days.
That said, of the choices we have here, Natalie Grant is the favorite as she has been for years, but Brooke Fraser is poised for the upset given all the praise her album received this past year. My vote goes to Francesca, though, because i really dig the pop tunes that she put together for her debut album.
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.:Group of the Year:.
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Casting Crowns
David Crowder*Band
Ernie Haase & Signature Sound
Mary Mary
MercyMe
Skillet
Third Day
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.:druthers:.
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.:likely:.
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David Crowder*Band
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MercyMe
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This category seems to go back and forth between Casting Crowns and MercyMe and since last year it went to Casting Crowns (actually the last FOUR years), it's probably MeryMe's turn. Of course, i tend to always pull for David Crowder*Band, even though they only had a live CD/DVD project released this year, but i wouldn't be opposed if Third Day pulled it off on the heels of Revelation.
Of course, this is also where i feel the need to complain that these are all pretty mainline groups - the same groups that get nominated year after year - and that it's not really representative of the tone of the industry. To overlook groups like Anberlin, The Myriad, Downhere, and The Afters, all of which had pretty big releases this year, or newcomers such as NewWorldSon or After Edmund, who impressed fans and critics alike, makes this category pretty tired and disingenuous. Never mind that groups like Deepspace 5 or Brave Saint Saturn probably didn't even come up in the conversation.
Okay, rant over. Next topic.
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.:Producer of the Year:.
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Brown Bannister
Ed Cash
Ian Eskelin
Wayne Haun
Bernie Herms
Jason Ingram, Rusty Varenkamp
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.:druthers:.
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.:likely:.
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Ian Eskelin
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Bernie Herms
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First off, where's Matt Bronleewe? Didn't four albums that he produced last year get nominated for Grammy Awards? Maybe that doesn't mean anything to the Dove voters.
Second off, i'm not really sure how many people are actually concerned with this category, but i like it because it recognizes the unsung heroes behind the albums that shaped the landscape of the industry.
Ian Eskelin won this last year and i see no reason why he shouldn't repeat, but the team of Jason Ingram and Rusty Varenkamp, with credits including albums from Rush of Fools and Meredith Andrews, could prove to be a fierce darkhorse. Bernie Herms, though, worked on a bunch of albums last year including WOW 2009, which makes him the industry's go-to guy.
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That's the first batch, the "major" categories. That should get you started. I'll be back in a day or so to weigh in on the songs categories and then the albums categories. Until then, don't be mad, just let it be.
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